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Prediction : Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund

Werder Bremen vs Dortmund predictions for Saturday’s Bundesliga fixture at Weser Stadium. After three defeats on the spin, the hosts will be hoping to bounce back. Continue reading below for all our free tips and predictions.

Bremen remain in with a chance of finishing in a Europa League spot, though they’ve done themselves few favours over the last couple of weeks. Saturday’s hosts come into this match having lost three on the bounce. Confidence is likely to be in short supply after they received a hammering from Dusseldorf last time out.

Unlike some teams, but much like Saturday’s opponents, Bremen have plenty left to play for, though they soon won’t unless they regain the winning thread. They’re still in the battle for the top six but defeat on Saturday would effectively end their chance of getting into Europe.

On the face of it, Bremen were well beaten last weekend; they conceded four and scored just one. However, Florian Kohfeldt’s men performed better than the result leads us to believe. They weren’t great at the back, as they surrendered six shots on target and 1.62 expected goals for, but going forward, they created more than their opponents, as they found the target nine times and clocked an impressive 2.68 expected goals for. A combination of fine last-ditch defending from the hosts and weak finishing on Bremen’s part proved to be costly, though the performances was not too discouraging.

On their own patch, Bremen have done very well of late, as they’ve won each of their last three at Weser Stadium, while they’re now unbeaten in eight at home. A repeat of any one of their recent performances against Freiburg, Mainz or Schalke would likely see Kohfeldt’s men do well on Saturday.

While the hosts have done well at home of late, Dortmund have looked a tad shaky on their travels. They did easily beat lowly Freiburg last time out, though they were battered (5-0) by Bayern, who Bremen only narrowly lost out to not once but twice recently, before that. Prior to their defeat at Allianz Arena, Dortmund stuttered their way to victory away against Hertha, conceding twice in the process, while they were held to a draw by lowly Nurnberg before that. Such result will fill Saturday’s hosts with confidence.

In addition to Bremen doing better at home of late than Dortmund have on the road, if we consider the underlying numbers of both, it becomes easy to feel that the hosts have been slightly underestimated by the early market. Dortmund average 1.42 expected goals for on the road, whereas Bremen average 1.69 at home. Dortmund average 1.22 against on their travels, while Bremen have conceded an average of 1.17 at home. Furthermore, Bremen have scored more goals at home than Dortmund have on the road, as they average 2.07 to Dortmund’s 1.67.

All things considered, both ‘Bremen Draw No Bet’ and ‘Bremen to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ stand out as viable bets at the current prices. Frankly, Bremen are a better side than the current prices suggest. More importantly, their efforts at home have been more impressive than Dortmund’s on the road, so they really ought to be a tad shorter. What’s more, the hosts have made a habit of scoring plenty of goals at home this season, so much so that backing them to enhance their record against a Dortmund side that will certainly leave space in behind is hard to resist, especially at what appears to be a slightly generous price.

Prediction : Over2.5


Source : freesupertips.co.uk

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